MKCHAIN Version 1.0   

COPYRIGHT (C) 2017 Norbert H. Doerry

Syntax:

MKCHAIN.EXE xmfile.xml 

   xmfile.xml = input file - required

Description:

   MKCHAIN creates a comma separated value (CSV) file where the 
   rows are nominally years (or time increments) and
   the columns are each a markov chain of states (represented as integers)
   The input xml file defines the probability for the initial state and the 
   state transition matrix.  The state transition table represents the probability
   of transitioning from one state to another

   MKCHAIN also optionally calculates the steady-state probability for each state which is 
   calculated by repeatedly multiplying the state transition matrix by itself
   until for each row the elements have the same value.


xmfile.xml format

<mkchain>   // required
<nbr_states> 4 </nbr_states>    // must be an integer  > 1 
<init_year> 2030 </init_year>   // must be an integer
<nbr_years> 70 </nbr_years>     // must be an integer  > 1 , default is 50
<nbr_chains> 100 </nbr_chains>  // must be a positive integer , default is 10
<print_flag> SER </print_flag>  // choices are VAL , NAME and SER
				// determines which is printed in the .csv file
<print_header> YES </print_header>  // other choice is NO  
				// prints out the input parametes
<steadystate>
   <calc> YES </calc>           // other choice is NO
   <max_iteration> 20 </max_iteration>   // must be an integer > 1, default is 100
   <max_error> .00001 </max_error>       // determines if matrix multiplication has 
					 // converged on steadystate solution
                                         // default is 0.000001 
</steadystate>

<debug> 1 </debug>              // If not 0, then prints out Debug information

<filename> conflict.csv </filename>   // output filename

<state>
   <ser> 1 </ser>  // State ID number -- integer between 1 and nbr_states - required
   <name> peacetime </name>  // string name for the state - required    
   <val> 10 </val>           // alternate (can be a floating point number)
   <initial_probability> 0.28 </initial_probability> // must be between 0 and 1 inclusive
</state>

<state>
   <ser> 2 </ser>
   <name> prep_for_war </name>
   <initial_probability> 0.30 </initial_probability>
   <val> 20 </val>
</state>

<state>
   <ser> 3 </ser>
   <name> regional_war </name>
   <initial_probability> 0.28 </initial_probability>
   <val> 30 </val>
</state>

<state>
   <ser> 4 </ser>
   <name> major_war </name>
   <initial_probability> 0.14 </initial_probability>
   <val> 40 </val>
</state>

<transition> 
   <from> 1 </from>  // if in state 1, the probabilty of transitioning to a state
		     // is given in the <to> elements
   <to>
       <state> 1 </state>  // State ID number 
       <probability> 0.88 </probability> // must be between 0 and 1 inclusive
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 2 </state>
       <probability> 0.09 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 3 </state>
       <probability> 0.00 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 4 </state>
       <probability> 0.03 </probability>
   </to>
</transition> 


<transition> 
   <from> 2 </from>
   <to>
       <state> 1 </state>
       <probability> 0.00 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 2 </state>
       <probability> 0.82 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 3 </state>
       <probability> 0.12 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 4 </state>
       <probability> 0.06 </probability>
   </to>
</transition> 
<transition> 
   <from> 3 </from>
   <to>
       <state> 1 </state>
       <probability> 0.09 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 2 </state>
       <probability> 0.09 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 3 </state>
       <probability> 0.79 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 4 </state>
       <probability> 0.03 </probability>
   </to>
</transition> 
<transition> 
   <from> 4 </from>
   <to>
       <state> 1 </state>
       <probability> 0.06 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 2 </state>
       <probability> 0.06 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 3 </state>
       <probability> 0.13 </probability>
   </to>
   <to>
       <state> 4 </state>
       <probability> 0.75 </probability>
   </to>
</transition> 


</mkchain>


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    This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
    it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
    the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
    (at your option) any later version.

    This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
    but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
    MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the
    GNU General Public License for more details.

    You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
    along with this program.  If not, see <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.

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